12认知心理学－决策.ppt

Hindsight Bias [6] The Gurkas were only some 12,000 strong; [7] but they were brave fighters, fighting in territory well suited to their raiding tactics. [8] The older British commanders were used to war in the plains where the enemy ran away from a resolute attack. [9] In the mountains of Nepal it was not easy to find the enemy. [10] The troops and transport animals suffered from the extremes of heat and cold, [11] and the officers learned caution only after sharp reverses. [12] Major-General Sir D. Octerlony was the one commander to escape from these minor defeats. Hindsight Bias In light of the information appearing in the passage, what was the probability of occurrence of each of the four possible outcomes listed below? ___________ British victory ___________ Gurka victory ___________ Military stalemate with no peace settlement ___________ Military stalemate with a peace settlement 过度自信（Overconfidence） Choose one answer for each question, and rate your confidence in your answer on a scale from .5 to 1.0 Which magazine had the largest circulation in 1978? a: Time; b: Reader’s Digest? Which city had the larger population in 1953? a: St. Paul, MN; b: New Orleans,LA ……………… 过度自信 期待－效用理论（Expected-Utility Theory） Major Probability of success Utility Expected Utility For success For failure Art .75 10 0 7.50 Asian studies .50 0 -5 -2.50 Biology .30 25 5 11.0 Chemistry .45 30 4 15.70 Economics .15 5 -10 -7.75 Psychology .60 35 -20 13.00 多特征效用模型（Multiattribute Utility Theory） 多特征效用模型 多特征效用模型 多特征效用模型 表象理论（Image Theory） 描述模型则说明人们实际上是如何决策的。 表象模型将重点放在决策的初始阶段，这时人们剔除了大量选择，然后才是在剩下的选择中进行决策。 表象理论 价值表像（value image）——决策者的价值观、道德、原则等方面的要求； 轨迹表像（trajectory image）——决策者的追求目标和对未来的憧憬； 策略表像（strategic image）——决策者制定计划时采取的方式。 改进决策（Improving Decision Making） 尽管人们在判断和决策方面的不断失误，但是人们还是天天在决策。因此，有必要研究人是怎样生存下来的、人的能力究竟强在哪里。同时，复杂的、重要的决策确实应该得到细致的对待。决策分析就是一组帮助人们考虑各种相关选项并加以权衡的技术，可以提高决策的质量。 决策（Decision making） 决策中的认知错觉 易获得性 表征－典型性 框定效应 相关错觉 后见偏差 过度自信 决策的效用模型 期待－效用模型 多特征效用模型 表象理论 改进决策 Deci