《施图德蒙德Studenmund应用计量经济学第六版课件》.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 施图德蒙德Studenmund应用计量经济学第六版课件 17-* ? 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Probability A random variable X is a variable whose numerical value is determined by chance, the outcome of a random phenomenon A discrete random variable has a countable number of possible values, such as 0, 1, and 2 A continuous random variable, such as time and distance, can take on any value in an interval A probability distribution P[Xi] for a discrete random variable X assigns probabilities to the possible values X1, X2, and so on For example, when a fair six-sided die is rolled, there are six equally likely outcomes, each with a 1/6 probability of occurring Figure 17.1 shows this probability distribution 17-* ? 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Figure 17.1 Probability Distribution for a Six-Sided Die 17-* ? 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation The expected value (or mean) of a discrete random variable X is a weighted average of all possible values of X, using the probability of each X value as weights: (17.1) the variance of a discrete random variable X is a weighted average, for all possible values of X, of the squared difference between X and its expected value, using the probability of each X value as weights: (17.2) The standard deviation σ is the square root of the variance 17-* ? 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Continuous Random Variables Our examples to this point have involved discrete random variables, for which we can count the number of possible outcomes: The coin can be heads or tails; the die can be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 For continuous random variables, however, the outcome can be any value in a given interval For example, Figure 17.2 shows a spinner for randomly selecting a point on a circle A contin