日本的外国资产和负债：对外部帐户的影 响.pdfVIP

2 Table of Contents Abstract ___________________________________________________________________ 1 I. Introduction ______________________________________________________________3 II. What Has Driven the Increase in Japan’s Income Balance? ________________________4 III. How Does Japan’s Income Balance Compare to Peers? __________________________8 IV. Interconnectedness Between the Trade and Income Balances _____________________ 11 V. Does the Change in Current Account Composition Towards Income Balance Affect its Responsiveness to the Real Exchange Rate? _____________________________________14 VI. Conclusions____________________________________________________________19 References ________________________________________________________________22 Box 1. The Rise in Corporate Saving in Japan _________________________________________6 Figures 1. Japan’s Increasing Income Balance and its Composition ___________________________5 2. Japan’s Income Balance Compared to Peers ____________________________________8 3. Geographical Allocation of FDI Assets, and Impact on Yields _____________________ 10 4. Negative Correlation Between Trade and Income Balances _______________________ 13 Tables 1. Japan and G6 Income Balance – Contributions of Stocks and Yields (2015– 17 average) __9 2. Theoretical Effects of REER Appreciation on Trade and Income Balances ___________ 16 3. Income Credit and Debit Elasticities to REER: Baseline Specification _______________ 17 Annexes 1. Comparing Japan’s Income Balance to Peers – The Role of Stocks vs. Implied Yields __25 2. Comparing Japan’s Income Balance to Peers – Advanced Creditor Countries _________27 3. Income Balance Semi-Elasticity Estimates – Data and Sources ____________________28 4. Income Credit and Debit – Disentangling Mechanical and Economic Effects__________29 5. Income Balance Elasticities – Empirical Strategy _