管理学课件讲解.pptxVIP

管理学;第五章决策与决策方法;第五章决策与决策方法;如何理解： 决策(Decision making)不以决策 (Decision)为起点，乂不以决策为 幺夂占 八、、;___;1、识别问题(Distinguish problem) (1) 差异分析 目标、标准 (2) 把问题加以分类 ?结松P性问题：出现频率信息结构标准方法结果的可预见性 (Structured problems)咼 清楚 有 经验、可预料 通过程序化决策(Programmed decision):低层管理 ①程序(Procedure)②规则(Rule)③政策(Policy) ?非结构性问题： 低 不清楚 没有 不可预料 (Non-structured problems) 非程序化决策(Non-p「ogrammed decision):高层管理;B. Step. 2:ldentifying decision criteria. The decision criteria include any criteria that define what is relevant in a decision. 2、 确定决策标准(Definite decision criteria) 管理者必须确定什么因素与决策有关 C. Step 3:Allocating weights to the criteria. The criteria identified in step 2 of the decision-making process must be weighted in order to give them correct priority in the decision. 3、 给标准分配权重(Distribute weight) 决策者如何衡量标准的重要性;D. Step 4:Developing alternatives.The decision maker now needs to identify viable alternatives for resolving the problem. 4、 拟定方案(Draft plan) 不用评价，只须列出 E. Step 5:Analyzing alternatives.Each of the alternatives must now be critically analyzed.Each alternative is evaluated by appraising it against the criteria. 5、 分析方案(Analyze plan) (1) 风险偏好 个人的风险偏好影响方案的选择，风险的大小源于你所 掌握的信息 (2) 经验 很多人过分依赖和相信他的经验，如果社会是静态程度 越高，经验所起的作用就越大;F. Step 6:Selecting an alternative.The act of selecting the best alternative from among those identified and assessed is critical. 6、 选择方案(Select plan) G. Step./implementing the alternative.The chosen alternative must be implemented.Implementation is defined as conveying a decision to those affected and getting their commitment to it. 7、 实施方案(Implement plan) H. Step 8:Evaluating decision effectiveness.The last step in the decisionmaking process assesses the result of the decision to see whether or not the problem has been corrected. 8、 评价决策效果(Evaluate decision effect);决策行为;决策条件与决策方法;决策的类型;?决策方法 -确定型决策 -风险型决策 ?决策树法（Decision;预测：高需求概率=0.3%；中需求概率=0.5%；低 需求概率=0.2% 投资：建新厂110万；扩建改造厂50万;220万;GAME I、 指南针2、剃须镜3、饮用水（25升）4、蚊帐 5、压缩饼干（1箱）6、航海图（1套）7、救生圈（1箱） 8、柴油（10升）9、收音机（1台）10、驱鲨剂（1箱） II、 20平米雨布（一块）12、二锅头（1箱