J.P.摩根-新兴市场投资策略-新兴市场边缘数据观察：在全球增长放缓中做出你的选择-2022.5.27-30页.docx

P M O R G A NGlobal Economic Research P M O R G A N 27 May 2022 EM Edge Data Watch Pick your poison in the global growth slowdown The markdown of US and Chinese growth, with more risks ahead, is a warning flag We map out the balance of goods exports exposure of Edge coun- tries to each economy CBs still tightening as inflation concerns prevail over growth wor- ries for now The global economy looks set to absorb some strong body blows, as in the last weeks J.P. Morgan has notably marked down its forecasts for both the US and China, and global recession risks are on the rise. This past week J.P. Morgan revised down 2022 forecast GDP growth in China from 4.3%y/y to 3.7%, with a sharper 2Q contraction (-5.4% q/q, saar) bouncing into a stronger assumed 3Q recovery, but still plenty of uncertainties and risks (See H. Zhu and team). A month ago China’s 2022 GDP was seen at 4.6%y/ y. Amid the unclear outlook, 2023 growth in China has been kept roughly stable, currently at 5.3%y/y. Meanwhile, US growth prospects are now notably more subdued. GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 stood at 3.5%y/y and 2.3%y/y in J.P. Morgan’s forecast a month ago, prior to the release of a contracting 1Q22. With the Fed now determined to tighten financial condi- tions, our U.S. economists have taken 2022 and 2023 GDP forecasts down to 2.7%y/y and 1.8%y/y respectively (see M. Feroli and team). Signs of resilience in the global economy remain for consumers and busi- nesses and the fallout from China’s slowdown has been limited so far, though relevant risks remain (See J. Lupton). On the US side, up to now, the remarkable aspect is the magnitude of the drag from net trade, a function of booming imports. Thus, at least at the outset the nature of the US slow- down is still actually cushioning trading partners. This week we look to map out the exposure of EM Edge economies to the two global economic giants. While Edge economies have different degrees of openness, it’s notable that for many countries the exp