油料作物展望：2021年3月.docxVIP

Domestic OutlookSoybean Prices Rally on Tight Stocks and High Crush While Export Pace Begins to Cool The March 2021 Futures price for soybeans averaged near $14.15 per bushel the first week of March. This price represents about a $0.30 per bushel increase relative the contracfs average price a month prior. Strong U.S. January exports of 324 million bushels on limited Brazilian supplies have further reduced the available domestic soybean supply and has supported prices. Through the first five months of the marketing year (September 2020-January 2021), U.S. soybean exports have totaled 1.82 billion bushels and already exceeded last years total exports of 1.68 billion bushels. Januarys volume represents a nearly 66 percent increase from last January, largely spurred by increased exports to China. However, export sales data indicates that weekly U.S. soybean exports are declining as anticipated with a seasonal shift to demand for BraziLs soybean crop. As such, USDA has maintained its 2020/21 soybean export forecast at 2.25 billion bushels. The forecasted season average price for soybeans also remains unchanged at $11.15 per bushel. Although current cash prices are significantly higher, prices received through January have averaged just over $10.00 per bushel, reflecting forward pricing at lower prices. High prices and strong crush push soybean prices to new heights Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, Central Illinois Soybean Processor Report; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Fats and Oils. In addition to strong exports, January crush volumes were the second highest on record at nearly 197 million bushels, up 4 percent year-over-year. Through the first five months of the marketing year, 2020/21 crush volumes total 949 million bushels, a nearly 6 percent increase over the same period last year. The increase in crush demand derives from strong margins for soybean meal and soybean oil. Due to the limited supply of soybeans, the ability of the domest