巴黎银行-中国-信贷策略-信贷还能增长多少?-20190222-10页.pdf

巴黎银行-中国-信贷策略-信贷还能增长多少?-20190222-10页.pdf

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FOCUS | CHINA Please refer to important information at 22 February 2019 the end of this report MARKET ECONOMICS | EM STRATEGY How much more credit growth can there be? KEY MESSAGES A big challenge facing the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) last year was how to channel rich liquidity in the financial Credit growth is set to accelerate this year, as the system and through to the real economy. Eventually, signs government has adopted an expansionary monetary of improvement were seen in January, as new loans and and credit policy for overall economic stability. total social financing (TSF) hit record highs. The effects have been immediate, and monetary In theory, credit supply is essential to boost economic indicators are all showing an upward trend for January. growth. But we have found that in past years, the TSF flow, in particular, surged more than 50% y/y. relationship between credit supply and economic growth has faded substantially, largely because of the burgeoning However, the rebound in credit growth this time should burden of interest payments (due to extremely high be much more muted than previous credit cycle leverage), the large boom in high-leverage property and upturns, in our view.

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