全球-投资策略-多资产策略：停滞,而不是下降.docxVIP

25 February 2019 25 February 2019 Global Research Multi-Asset Global Max KettnerMulti-Asset StrategistHSBC Bank plc+44 20 7991 5045Duncan TomsMulti-Asset StrategistHSBC Bank plc+44 20 7991 3025Mark McDonaldHead of Data Science and Analytics Max Kettner Multi-Asset Strategist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 5045 Duncan Toms Multi-Asset Strategist HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 3025 Mark McDonald Head of Data Science and Analytics HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 5966 Pierre Blanchet Head of Multi-Asset Strategy HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7991 5388 Jayasankar Mallisetty* Associate Bangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 2s10s USTs 10Y TIPS yield Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Spread Jan20-Feb19 Fed fund futures Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Yet a neutral Fed creates room for further upsideWe investigate relative asset class performance and its value for tactical asset allocation With risk assets such as DM equities up over 15% since the December lows, in this context last weeks subpar gains might be viewed as the rally running out of steam. Yet we see little reason to believe that now might be an inflexion point: risk assets may have stalled, but we dont see them falling - particularly with the recent knee-jerk move in response to the latest US-China trade developments. Very simply, our current view is condensed into the two charts below. At the end of last year Fed rate hike expectations scaled back rapidly, and the 2s10s UST curve flattened aggressively. This put risk assets under sharp pressure. Yet since then both 2s 10s and Fed expectations have remained remarkably stable. This, along with declining real yields, have boosted the risk asset rally. As long as both 2s 10s and Fed expectations stay so stable, risk assets should continue to outperform - particularly if real yields decline further. So the outlook for the Fed is arguably the most important factor