皮尤-塑造美国宗教的未来（英）-2022.9.pdf

FOR RELEASE SEPTEMBER 13, 2022 Modeling the Future of Religion in America If recent trends in religious switching continue, Christians could make up less than half of the U.S. population within a few decades FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Stephanie Kramer, Senior Researcher Conrad Hackett, Associate Director of Research and Senior Demographer Kelsey Beveridge, Communications Associate 202.419.4372 RECOMMENDED CITATION Pew Research Center, September, 2022, “Modeling the Future of Religion in America” 1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, computational social science research and other data-driven research. It studies politics and policy; news habits and media; the internet and technology; religion; race and ethnicity; international affairs; social, demographic and economic trends; science; research methodology and data science; and immigration and migration. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. © Pew Research Center 2022 2 PEW RESEARCH CENTER How we did this This report seeks to answer the question: What might the religious makeup of the United States look like roughly 50 years from now, in 2070, if recent trends continue? We try to address this not with sweeping predictions or grand theories, but with mathematical projections that combine techniques standardly used in demography (the study of human populations) with data we have collected in surveys on religion. Demographers proje