通过循环性建设一个更具生产力和弹性的英国.docxVIP

BuildingamoreproductiveandresilientUK

through

circularity

ExecutiveSummary

TheUKhasaproductivityproblem.Eventhoughmorepeopleareworking,andformore

hours,productivityhasn’treallymoved.Thisstagnationhasheldbackwagegrowthandlivingstandards,withtheso-calledproductivitypuzzleprovingresistanttoconventionalsolutions.Thisisn’tjustaboutonesectororoneissue.It’sawidespreadchallengeacrosstheUK

economy.

Inmanybusinessandpolicydiscussionstheterm“circularity”isoftenproposedorinterpretedlargelyasanenvironmentalplay.Wewantedtodigdeeper.Couldcircularity–doneright-

offerrealeconomicandbusinessvalueintheUK?Coulditdeserveamorecentralplaceindiscussionsaboutgrowth?ThispaperexplorestheeconomicvalueoftheUKcontext.1

We’velookedatsomerealistic,near-termscenarios.Thesearedeliberatelyconservative,aimedatansweringasimplequestion:wouldmoreoftherightkindofcircularitysupportgrowth?

Ourfindingssayyes.

Focusingonincreasingcircularityinkeysectors(construction,textiles,packagingand

electronicssectors)thescenariosshowgrowthintheUKeconomyof0.85to1percent.Pluscreatingorsustainingc.150,000to170,000full-timeequivalentjobs.

Thataddsuptoa0.2to0.4percentboostinlabourproductivity,measuredbyGVAperjob.

Toputthatintocontext,it’smorethanwhat’sprojectedfrommanyemergingtechnologies.2TheUKmightbeespeciallywell-placedtotakeadvantageofthis.

Wealreadyhaverelativestrengthinservices.Wedon’thaveabigfootprintinextractive

industriesandprimaryconversion/manufacturing.Ourpopulationisalsorelativelydense,whichhelpswithlogisticsandreuse.Andlookingahead,theUKaimstogrowitsshareofmoreadvancedformsofmanufacturingandre-processing,andincreaseresiliencetotradeshocksandresourceavailability.

Anoteofcaution:notallformsofcircularityarecreatedequal.Th