社会系统仿真课件.ppt

MPJ/UNM CS452/Mgt 532 I. Introduction MPJ/UNM CS452/Mgt532 I. Introduction I. Introduction M. Peter Jurkat CS452/Mgt532 Simulation for Managerial Decisions The Robert O. Anderson Schools of Management University of New Mexico Definitions Simulation: process of experimenting with a model of a dynamic systems (e.g., process) to study or test the behavior of the system improve, problem solve design and/or select new systems , and/or train operators on a model of an existing systems System: purposeful, interrelated components with interdependencies and complexity Behavior: purposeful, interrelated sequences of activities Dynamic: time varying (static systems are dull!) Examples Service Systems: Traffic on Networks: messages to/from computers, cars on roads/rails, airplanes to/from airports/gates, ships to/from harbors/piers, elevators Retail/Service :stores selling goods, service/repair shops, logistics/inventory/distribution/MRP Manufacturing Systems: Materials, Chemicals, Biologicals Appliances, Automobiles/Trucks, Toys, Clothing Electronics, Weapons Systems Computations using models from other disciplines Macroeconomic: taxation/interest rate cost/benefits Pollution: environmental intervention cost/benefits Project Management: completion time vs resources Why Simulate? To overcome human limitations in Physical capability: avoid injury and death; be able to control systems whose dynamics are not yet known, … Mental capability: attention, memory, processing, … Analysis: allows us to study systems too complex for analytic description and/or too dangerous for human safety – gain knowledge Design: attempt changes in IVs to drive one or more DVs toward an “optimal” value or combination of values for design, improvement, and/or problem solving When not to Simulate! When theory can determine sufficient results When it will cost more to simulate than the return on the knowledge gained When there is incomplete information about the system (can handle imprecise but not mis