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Hungary
Economic outlook
Michal Dybula, Chief Economist Central & Eastern Europe
Rafal Staroscik, Junior Economist
Bank BGŻ BNP Paribas SA
July 2017
Summary: Good while it lasts
We are revising up our Hungarian GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 3.5% from 2.3%, mainly on the back of
unexpectedly strong growth in the eurozone.
Buoyant above-trend GDP growth in the short term is unlikely to be sustained in the following years, however,
owing to Hungary’s cyclical position and growing capacity constraints. We see the economy expanding by 2.5% in
2018 (revised from 2.2%) and 2.0% in 2019.
After plummeting by nearly 15%, investment outlays should recover this year, rising by almost 20% thanks to an EU-
funded bounce-back in capital spending. Private consumption should also contribute much to GDP growth this year.
We expect fiscal policy to be loosened in 2017-18 and look for another round of VAT-rate cuts next year.
Nevertheless, the budget deficit should remain safely below the EU-mandated threshold of 3% of GDP until 2019.
Despite the disinflationary impact of VAT tax cuts, we expect CPI inflation to average 2.3% in 2017 and 2.7% in
2018. We see a strong case for higher consumer-price growth down the line.
Brisk wage growth is likely to see core inflation topping 3% y/y already in late 2017.
Although headline inflation should touch the policymakers’ 3% target next year, we expect the National Bank of
Hungary (NBH) to focus on keeping the forint weak and not to tighten the policy stance.
The NBH will accept deeply negative real rates, we think, as helping to fend off HUF appreciation pressure
stemming from surpluses on the current and capital accounts.
Nevertheless, a negative terms-of-trade shock related to a spike in commodit
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