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穆迪-主权风险-Sovereign Risk Report Sovereign Risk Declines Broadly-20170717-MOODY’S.pdf

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SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL SECTOR IN-DEPTH Sovereign Risk Report 17 July 2017 Sovereign Risk Declines Broadly Market price-based measures of sovereign credit risk mostly improved over the week ending July 14. Latin America’s average Sovereign EDFTM (expected default frequency) metric1 recorded the a weekly drop, at 2.5%. EDFs measure the expected probability of default over a five-year time horizon. Within the Latin America region, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico Contacts showed the strongest weekly improvements. Venezuela’s economy heavily relies on oil, Irina Baron which accounts for 95% of exports and nearly half of government revenue. The 5.2% rise Asst Dir-Research in the US crude oil prices over the past week helped contribute to the slight decline in the Associate country’s EDF measure. Venezuela’s Sovereign EDF declined from 18.9% to 18.3% over the irina.baron@ past week. Despite the decline, measures of credit risk in Venezuela still suggest it is the Xian Li 212-553-1404 sovereign likeliest to default, by a wide margin. Notably, the country’s elevated EDF measure Senior Research is in line with Greece’s EDF measure three months prior to its March 2012 distressed-debt Analyst xian.li@