第十届挑战杯全国大学生课外学术科技作品城市水资源的可持续发展分析.docVIP

第十届挑战杯全国大学生课外学术科技作品 城市水资源的可持续发展分析 摘要： 本文在研究水循环和水量转换的基础上，以沈阳市为研究范围，根据供水系统和需水系统相互制约关系的理论内涵，对常用的水资源利用政策在社会经济环境系统中的作用，进行系统动力学的动态仿真模拟，并对模拟结果进行多个因素的综合评价，能够从定量的角度说明政策在系统中的长期影响。这不仅可以使决策者根据实际情况选择相应的政策。而且可以决定政策推行的进程以及进行政策的最佳组合。对水资源利用政策的理解从定性分析转向定量化比较，即沈阳市需要尽快采取节约用水的政策，可以在短期内收到较好的效果。但是从长期来看，必须进行污水治理，推广中水回用，开源于节流并重，才能跟上社会经济持续发展对水资源的需求增长。 关键词：水资源 可持续发展 系统动力学的动态仿真模拟 定量评估 Abstract: This text takes sun City as range of research in studying the foundation that water circle and water measure a conversion, according to supply water the system relate to with need water system a check and supervision mutually of theories content, to the in common use water using of resource policy is in the function in the social economic environment system, the dynamic state which carries on system dynamics imitates true emulation, and to imitate result carry on several factor of comprehensive evaluation, can from fixed amount of angle elucidation the policy is in the system of long-term influence. This policy that not only can make the decision maker correspond according to the actual circumstance choice. And the progress canned decides the policy promotes and carry on the best combination of policy. Change direction fixed amount to turn a comparison from the qualitative analysis to the comprehension of water using of resource policy, then sun City needs to adopt an economy to use an aqueous policy as soon as possible, can receive better result in the short date. But see from the long-term, have to carry on dirty water to manage, water returns to use in the expansion, opening to come from to reduce expenses to lay equal stress on, then can keep up with social economy keep on developing to the need growth of water resources.Key words: water resource; sustained development; SD model; fix quantify evaluation.、 目录 摘要： 1 一．前言 5 二． 我国城市水资源利用状况及政策 6 2.1 我国城市水资源利用现状及存在的问题 6 2.2 我国城市水资源利用政策 7 三． 城市水资源合理利用政策实施效果的定量化研究方法 8 3.1 城市水资源合理利用的定量化综合模型 8 3.2 水资源可持续开发的系统动力学（SD）模型 10 3.3 城市水资源可持续发展能力评价指标体系 13