GEFA 海气相互作用估计方法研究进展.pdfVIP

Progress 研究进展 GEFA海气相互作用估计方法研究进展 1 2,1 1 温娜 刘征宇 江志红 1 210044 2 （ 教育部省部共建气象灾害重点实验室，南京信息工程大学，南京 ； 气候研究中心，威斯康辛大学，美国） 摘要：回顾了近十年海气相互作用统计估计方法研究的最新进展，重点介绍广义平衡反馈分析方法（GEFA）。该方法用 于系统分离不同海区对气候异常的独立贡献。它的优越性在简单模式中得到了验证。在实际观测应用中，GEFA结果不仅 验证了前人的一些研究成果，例如热带太平洋ENSO模对北美降水的影响等，还揭示了一些新的物理现象，像热带印度洋 对热带太平洋海温异常强迫的干扰等。这些研究结果表明GEFA已成为海气相互作用研究中一种新的有效统计工具。 关键词：统计估计方法，广义平衡反馈分析方法，海气相互作用 An Introduction to GEFA for the Assessment of Ocean-Atmosphere Feedback 1 2,1 1 Wen Na , Liu Zhengyu , Jiang Zhihong (1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, Nanjing 210044 2 Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin) Abstract: The latest progress of the statistical study method of assessing the ocean/atmosphere feedback is reviewed in the paper. This method is called the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA). The new method GEFA could be used to separate the atmospheric response to the individual ocean forcing automatically. Its validity is preliminarily proved in a simple thermal model. And its application in the observation not only confirms some previous research results, e.g., the North America precipitation anomaly influenced by Pacific ENSO, but also reveals some new features of ocean/atmosphere feedback, such as the atmospheric response to the tropical ENSO mode severely interfered by the tropical Indian Ocean. Therefore, GEFA provides a useful tool for assessing the oceanic feedback to the atmosphere. Key words: statistical method, GEFA, ocean-atmosphere f