财务危机预警体系的构建—基于ST上市公司的实证研究毕业论文.docVIP

毕业论文 （20_ _届） 财务危机预警体系的构建—基于ST上市公司的实证研究 摘 要 随着国际经济一体化步伐的加快，外部环境的不确定性和企业内部管理系统风险因素增多从客观上要求企业建立财务危机预警体系，变事后管理为事前管理；而另一方面，上市公司在经营过程中面临各种风险考验,其财务状况良好与否直接影响到证券市场的发展和投资者的利益。而大量实践证明,上市公司危机在很大程度上源自财务危机。建立完善的财务危机预警体系，对于保护投资者和债权人的利益，对于银行业科学的加强信贷风险管理，对于政府部门提高对企业的宏观监控质量以及规范证券市场等方面都将起到重要的作用，并且有利于促进我国资本市场的规范和健康发展。 本文将在总结国内外研究成果基础上，以我国深沪A股上市公司为研究对象选择2008-2009两年被ST公司及与其配对的非ST公司共38家作为样本。运用统计方法对样本公司近三年财务数据进行收集与分析，选取23个财务指标进行因子分析建立Logistic模型。实证研究表明该模型具有较高的判别准确率可以为投资者、债权人和管理者提供判别依据。能够对客观评价企业财务状况、预测企业未来发展趋势、保护投资者利益、提升政府宏观监控能力有所帮助。 关键词：财务危机；财务预警；因子分析法；Logistic模型Abstractlong with international economy integration step quickening, External environments uncertainty and the enterprise internal management system risk factor increases requests the enterprise to establish the financial crisis objectively to forewarn the system, Changed manages afterward to manage in anticipation; But on the other hand, To be listed in management process faced with each kind of risk test, its financial situation is good or not the immediate influence to the stock market development and investors benefit. But the massive practices proved, To be listed crisis in very great degree upper reaches from financial crisis. The establishment perfect finance crisis forewarns the system, Regarding protects the investor and creditors benefit, Strengthens the credit risk management regarding the banking industry science, Will enhance regarding the Government department to aspects and so on enterprises macroscopic monitoring quality as well as standard stock market will play the vital role, And is advantageous in promoting our country capital market standard and the healthy development. This article will summarize in the domestic and foreign research results foundation, Take the listed firms in shanghai and Shenzhen capital markets as object of study, choice 19 ST listed companies and 19 non-ST companies on 2008 and 2009 as sample. Using statistical method, Carries on the collection and the analysis to the sample company nea