气候变化对中国农业生产影响及应对策略.pdfVIP

2010 7 18 4 Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, July 2010, 18(4): 905−910 DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2010.00905 * 刘彦随1,2 刘 玉1,2 郭丽英3 (1. 100101; 2. 100101; 3. 100081) 全球气候呈现变暖的趋势, 对农业生产和粮食安全产生重大影响, 并成为当今全球环境变化关注的 热点问题之一。本文采用文献综述与比较研究的方法, 系统分析了气候变化对光资源、温度、土壤质量和水 环境等农业生产要素的影响机理, 探讨了气候变化对我国作物种植区域和种植制度、农作物病虫害、农业生 产能力以及农业经济与管理等方面的实际影响, 通过梳理国外应对气候变化的主要农业战略, 提出新时期我 国应对气候变化的农业可持续发展策略。 农业生产 粮食安全 气候变化 应对策略 中国 : F329.9;S162.5 : A : 1671-3990(2010)04-0905-06 Impact of climatic change on agricultural production and response strategies in China LIU Yan-Sui1,2, LIU Yu1,2, GUO Li-Ying3 (1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3. Insti- tute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract A number of studies indicate increasing global climate warming especially in recent decades. Climate warming greatly influences global agro-production and food security — the focus of global environmental change. This paper proposes a structural and orientational framework for scientifically addressing climatic change impact on agro-production. Through literature review and comparative studies, the paper systematically summarizes influencing mechanisms and effect of climate warming on such agro-production factors as light, temperature, soil quality and water environment. The impact of climate warming on cultivation re- gions, cropping systems, crop pests, agro-production capacity, agro-economy and farm management is