财政农业支出对农村产出与居民消费的影响SVAR的分析.pdfVIP

财政农业支出对农 产出与居民消费影响的 SV A R 分析 # 19 # 财政农业支出对农村产出与居民 ¹ 消费影响的SVAR 分析 1 2 胡永刚 杨智峰 ( 11 上海财经大学经济学院; 21 上海金融学院国际经贸学院) = 本文使用SV A R 方法就农业财政政策对农 产出与居民消费的影响进 行冲击响应方差分解和弹性与乘数分析, 同时考察财政农业支出的不同部分对农 产出与居民消费的不同影响研究表明: ¹ 中国财政农业支出对农 产出和居民 消费是挤入的, 农业税收的影响与此相反, 税收的挤出作用大于支出的挤入作用; º科技费救济及其他费与基本建设费对农 产出与居民消费有较明显的长期效 应, 事业费对农 产出与居民消费的短期效应明显, 长期效应较弱 财政政策 农 产出 居民消费 SV A R F 01415 A A SVAR Analysis in the Effect of Rural Fiscal Expenditure on Rural Output and Consumption Abstract: T his paper u ses SV A R to identif y the ef fect of rura f isca po icy on rur a out put and consumptio n by im pu se response, v ar iance deco mposit ion and e- asticity ana y sis and st udies on t he ef fect o f diff er ent co mpo nents of rura f isca ex- penditure on rura output and consumpt ion1 Our main conc u sions are : ( Ñ) Chi- na. s rura fisca expendit ure crow ds in and rura t ax crow ds out rura out put and consumpt ion, t he negat ive ef fect o f rura t ax is great er t han t he positiv e ef fect of rur a expendit ure1 ( Ò) Ex pendit ure on science and t echno ogy dev e o pment and inf rast ruct ure, and ot her ex penditure has ong run ef fect on rur a out put and con- sum pt ion w hi e administ rat ive expendit ure on y has sho rt run eff ect1 Key words: Fisca P o icy ; Rur a Out put ; Consumpt ion ; SV A R 1978 , G DP 10% 30 , ¹ / 0