城市轨道交通客流预测结果技术分析体系.pdfVIP

第31 卷 第3期 长安大学学报( 自然科学版) Vol. 31 No.3 2011年5 月 Journal of Changan University(Natural Science Edition) May 2011 :2011 1,2 1 3 1 王玉萍 , 陈宽民,杨富社 ,马超群 ( 1. , 710064; 2. , 710055; 3. , 710064) :针对目前城 轨道交通客流预测可信度较低的状况,建议通过对客流预测结果的评估分析 来提高轨道交通系统的抗风险能力,提出了包含可信度分析客流特性分析风险性分析和敏感性 分析在内的城 轨道交通客流预测结果分析的结构体系从预测过程和预测结果两方面指出了城 轨道交通客流预测可信度分析的要点,以高峰小时单向最大断面客流量时空分布特性为核心, 建立了轨道交通客流特性分析指标;通过客流在成熟区域内的集中率和在某些车站的集中率,反映 客流预测结果的风险性大小; 提出了客流预测敏感性分析的技术路线,并进 一步指出不同时期敏感 性因素的选择, 并对西安地铁3 号线客流预测进行了全面分析结果表明: 其预测结果是可信的, 但客流的时空分布很不均衡; 客流预测存在较大的风险性, 客流波动幅度较大 :交通工程; 轨道交通; 客流预测; 可信度;风险分析; 敏感性分析 :U491. 1 :A Analysis system of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast resul t 1,2 1 3 1 WANG Yuping , CHEN Kuanmin , YANG Fushe , MA Chaoqun ( 1. School of Highway, Changan University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Xi an University of Architecture Technology, Xian 710055, Shaanxi, China; 3. School of Science, Changan University, Xi an 710064, Shaanxi, China) Abstract: In view of the low credibility of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast, it was put forward that URTs antirisk ability should be improved through analyzing passenger flow fore cast. The structural framing of URT passenger flow forecast analysis was built, which include passenger flow reliability analysis, characteristic analysis, risk analysis and sensitivity analysis. From the process and result of passenger flow forecast, the keys of reliability analysis of URT passenger flow forecast were found. The indicators for URT passenger flow characteris