Compact object merger rates Predictions.pptVIP

Compact object merger rates Predictions Constraints (including short GRBs) Richard O’Shaughnessy Vicky Kalogera Northwestern University LSC, March 21, 2006 Results (2005) LIGO rates: INITIAL ADVANCED Details (2005) [H] LIGO rates: + spiral density + euclidean universe (no cosmology) + LIGO single-IFO range + Chirp mass distrib (estimate): Mc15/6 = 111 MO15/6 BH-BH (i.e. MBH 10) = 5.8 MO15/6 BH-NS = 2 MO15/6 NS-NS (i.e. MNS1.4) Method (2005) Based on Milky Way (well understood: history, population, …) + density of spirals Rates/MW (now): - RBH-BH= 1.8 / Myr * 4+1 -- 1.8 x 10-8/ Mpc3/yr - RBH-NS= 5 / Myr * 4+1 -- 5 x 10-8 / Mpc3/yr - RNS-NS= 16 / Myr *(4.4)+1 -- 16 x10-8 / Mpc3/yr Method (2005) Other contributions?: Prompt mergers ( 1400 Myr ~ universe age) Spirals dominate local SFR / blue light Key assumptions (2005) Steady star formation Prompt mergers dominate Spiral-like birth conditions (IMF) Refinements Star formation history: Previous estimate: Observed history: Refinements Delay time distribution : Delay time = merger time - birth time Sample distribution (model-dependent) + 1/t works well [long times] … over a specific range + some prompt/instant Refinements Delay time distribution : Delay time = merger time - birth time Sample distribution (model-dependent) + 1/t works well [long times] … over a specific range + some prompt/instant What’s changed? [H] Delay time distribution : …..except BH-BH : 1/t fails: [tmin ~ 10 Gyr (!)] ~ requires long-delay mergers Refinements Heterogeneity Spirals Young Hard to make high M stars Ellipticals Old Easier to make high M stars What’s changed? [H] (*) Heterogeneity: Details Elliptical/spiral census (now, evolving) Census info Panter et al 2004, Read Trentham 2005 Fukugita, Hogan, Peebles 1998,