油气管道第三方破坏风险等级划分方法研究.pdfVIP

石油工业技术监督· 年 月 研究与探讨 2011 4 油气管道第三方破坏风险等级划分方法研究* 赵新好 姚安林 蒋宏业 西南石油大学 石油工程学院 （四川 成都 610500 ） 摘 要 基于油气管道第三方破坏半定量风险评估，利用已获得的大量的半定量风险值，结合物元与可拓集合理论对管道第三 方破坏风险等级进行划分。 通过输入第三方破坏评价指标不同的评分值，运用层次分析法对各评价指标权重赋值，计算可拓集 合关联函数得到相应的风险等级，进而为管道运营单位风险管理提供理论上的决策依据。 该分析方法具有较强的普适性与可 操作性，能很好地结合评价人员的专业知识，综合评价管道第三方破坏的风险水平，使油气管道第三方破坏风险等级的划分更 加科学合理。 关键词 第三方破坏 物元 可拓集合 层次分析法 风险等级 Abstract Based on the semi-quantitative risk assessment of the third party damage in oil and gas pipelines, the risk ranks of the third partys damage in pipelines are classified by the application of a great deal of obtained semi-quantitative risk value, together with matter-element and extension set theories. The corresponding risk rank are gotten from the input of different scoring values about the assessing standard of the third partys damage, the use of analytic hierarchy process in evaluating the weight of various evaluation indexes and the calculation of correlation function of extension set, and thus offering the theoretical decision basis of risk management to pipeline operation units. The analysis method with stronger generality and operability can comprehensively assess the risk level of the third partys damage in pipelines according to the professional knowledge of evaluating staffs, and finally make it more sensible and scientific to classify the risk ranks of third partys damage in oil and gas pipelines. Key words the third partys damage; matter element; extension set; analytic hierarchy process; risk ranks 在油气管道事故风险可能性的影响因素中，第 论，通过建立第三方破坏多指标参数的评定模型，并