基于贝叶斯网络的河流突发性水质污染事故风险评估_孙鹏程.pdfVIP

DOI :10.13227/j.hjkx.2009.01.034 30 1 　　　　　　 Vol.30, No.1 2009 1 Jan., 2009 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE , (, 　100084) : . , 、, ., , ., . :;;; :X820.4　:A　:0250-3301(2009)01-0047-05 Risk Assessment of River Water Quality Under Accidental Pollution Based on Bayesian Networks SUN Peng-cheng, C EN Ji-ning (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) Abstract:Risk assessment for accidental pollution plays an important role in riverwater quality management.Bayesian networks can be applied to represent the relationship between pollution sources and river water quality intuitively.A time sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, integrated with pollution sources model, water quality model and Bayesian reasoning, is developed to quantify riverwater quality risk underthe collective influence of multiple pollution sources.A case study shows that multiple pollution sources have obvious effect on water quality risk of the receiving water body, which meansthat integrated management shouldbe developedfor multiple risk sources.The model could also support the decision-making process of river basin management through identification of critical pollution sources. Key words:risk assessment;Bayesian networks;time sequential Monte Carlo;water quality model 　　, 、 . 、 1　 , , 2005 41 , 2006 , 95 ., . , , , , , [6, 7] . (conditional probability table, CPT) . , , ( , ), , [1～5]