GrowthStrategies：增长战略.pptVIP

Growth Strategies Dani Rodrik October 2005 Hence the WC is fast being replaced by a new emergent consensus: Economists have limited ability to recommend appropriate growth policies It’s not policies, but institutions that matter Appropriate policies (and institutions?) depend on local circumstances Experimentation is inevitable The changing conventional wisdom: “there is no unique universal set of rules… we need to get away from formulae and the search for elusive “best practices” …. rely on deeper economic analysis to identify the binding constraints on growth…” From the introduction by Gobind Nankani to the World Bank’s Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform “whatever the policy area, there is no single formula applicable to all circumstances; policies’ effectiveness depends on the manner in which they are discussed, approved, and implemented…. A strictly technocratic approach toward policymaking shortchanges these steps ….” From the introduction to the forthcoming IPES Report of the IDB. But some change less than others… “reforms were uneven and remained incomplete…. More progress was made with measures that had low up-front costs, such as privatization, relative to reforms that promised greater long-term benefits, such as improving macroeconomic and labor market institutions, and strengthening legal and judicial systems” -- IMF (2005) “Meant Well, Tried Little, Failed Much” -- Anne Krueger (2004) All agree on the need to: replace “quick fixes” with “deep fixes” use different strokes for different folks Towards a more operational agenda:Designing growth strategies Growth diagnostics: what are the most binding constraints on growth? Policy design: how do we best alleviate the relevant constraints? Institutionalization: how do we institutionalize the diagnostic/policy design process in view of the fact that the nature of binding constraints will change over time? Illustrations El Salvador: low investment demand due to low