中国人口增长中短期预测模型探讨07656.pdfVIP

29 1 ( ) Vol. 29 No. 1 2010 3 Jour nal of South-Central U niversity for Nationalities( Nat. Sci. E ition) Mar. 2010 1 2, * 姚志鹏, 陈盛双 ( 1 , 430212; 2 , 430063) 5 , , , n n+ 1 , . , , , , , . ; ; 221 1672-4321( 2010) 01-0124-05 O A Discussion of Short and Medium Term Forecast Model of Chi nese Populati on Growth Yao Zh ip eng 1, Chen S heng sh uang 2 ( 1 Public Mathematics Department, Hankou Branch School of Huazhong Normal Universit y, Wuhan 430212, China; 2 School of Science, Wuhan Universit y of Technology , Wuhan 430063, China) Abstract The simple recursion mo el from the n year to the n + 1 year is establishe base on the five years population ata, consi ering the factors of age, sex an t he population structure of cit y, tow n, an village. The grey pre ictive mo el is use to pre ict the fert ility rate, eath rate an sex ratio of t he future several years. Then the author buil s t he age istribution mo els of fertility rate an eat h rate an pre icts t he fertility rat e an eath . rate of each age of t he future several years The art icle uses the result of recursive computation to pre ict the population structure of t he fut ure several years, an establishes t he optimizat ion short an me ium term forecast mo el on the simple recursion mo el, finally pre ict s the population quant ities of the fut ure several years. ; ; Keywords populat ion forecast age istribution grey pre ict , , . . , , . , , , [ 2]