发电系统运行风险的评估算法.pdfVIP

第31 卷 第31 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.31 No.31 Nov.5, 2011 134 2011 年11 月5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2011 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2011) 31-0134-08 TM 71 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 发电系统运行风险的评估算法 刘若溪，张建华，刘文霞，吴迪 ( 电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学) ，北京市 昌平区 102206) Method of Operational Risk Assessment for Generating System LIU Ruoxi, ZHANG Jianhua, LIU Wenxia, WU Di (Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control (North China Electric Power University), Ministry of Education, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: In order for evaluating the risk of generating 效性。 system more accurately, this paper introduced the generating 关键词：发电系统；风险；实时运行条件；马尔可夫理论； system operational risk assessment concept and the relationship 停运率模型 between it and traditional reliability evaluation. In this paper, the author put forward an operational risk assessment algorithm 0 引言 for generating system, in which the operating conditions of 在电力市场条件下，发电商的经济利益与是否 generator was considered. In this algorithm the generators were 能够按时履行其与电网运营商所签购电协议有着 divided into two types: time-varying and non-time-varying 很大关系。由于导致发电厂不能正常运转的原因多 generator, the time-dependent outage probability of each type was deduced based on Markov theory. The outage rate of 种多样，其中不仅包括内部原因也包括外部原因， generator was calculated by a method in which the operating 为此电厂运行