《MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF WEST NILE VIRUS MODEL WITH DISCRETE DELAYS》.pdfVIP

Acta Mathematica Scientia 2013,33B(5):1439–1462 MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF WEST NILE VIRUS MODEL WITH DISCRETE DELAYS∗ Salisu M. GARBA Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa E-mail: Salisu.Garba@up.ac.za Mohammad A. SAFI Department of Mathematics, The Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan E-mail: masafi@.jo Abstract The paper presents the basic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV). The model, which consists of seven mutually-exclusive compartments representing the birds and vector dynamics, has a locally-asymptotically stable disease- free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number (R ) is less than unity. 0 As reveal in [3, 20], the analyses of the model show the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity). It is shown, that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the associated standard incidence function with a mass action incidence. Analysis of the reproduction number of the model shows that, the disease will persist, whenever R0 1, and increase in the length of incubation period can help reduce WNV burden in the c