《2016中国股市展望—摩根大通龚方雄》.doc

以下是摩根大通龚方雄的邮件。另附摩根大通李晶的PPT――2009中国股市展望。FYI US marketing feedback * Still on the road... Based on the marketing trips so far in the US, investors/markets have been looking for the sign-posts to a recovery. It is apparent that investors/markets have been increasing China equity exposure/positions over the last two-to-three months (a key reason why MSCI China massively outperformed). For those who have gone OW China in the last two to three months, they are uneasy now given the run-up and outperformance of MSCI China.  很明显，美国投资者在过去的2-3个月增持中国股票带动了MSCI中国指数的上涨。但过去几个月MSCI中国指数突然上涨给已经超配中国指数的投资者带来了些许不安。 * Our cautious call for the near term was initiated in mid-Dec (pls refer to the attached pdf file) and was well received. Since then MSCI China has been in range bound (between the 50-day moving average of 38.73 and a high of 44.64). The index corrected about 10.3% from the high. Based on Fridays close, it is trading at 11.5x 09 PE based on our assumption (assuming a 5.7% EPS decline as of our estimate, and the consensus 09 PE earning growth is 3.3% at the moment) and 1.66x 09E PB. The A-shares YTD is up by 5%. Even after the recent correction, MSCI China still outperformed the MSCI EM by 6.8% in the last three months, and up 47% from the Oct low. We still expect China to outperform in the 6-12 months horizon, and would stay OW China despite our near term cautious stance.  我们从12月中旬开始提示风险并得到了良好验证。指数从高点回调了近10.3%。直到周五收盘，MSCI中国指数09年PE为11.5，PB为1.66。A股年初至今上涨5%。即使经过本论调整，在过去3个月内MSCI中国指数涨幅达到47%，仍然优于MSCI新兴市场指数6.8个百分点。虽然近期观点较为谨慎，我们仍然期待大盘在未来半年到一年中会有出色的表现并仍然能维持“增持”评级。 * Our near term cautious stance was mainly on valuation, and when we are heading to the earnings announcement season for China in late Feb-April, the earnings risks are on the downside, and analysts may still have to revise down the EPS numbers, given almost all the macro and top-down numbers in Q4 have surprised on the downside. We believe that if the earnings number comes out below consensus forecast, an inevitable s