ANormalNuclearPakistan-CarnegieEndowmentfor.PDFVIP

A Normal Nuclear Pakistan A Normal NUCLEAR PAKISTAN by Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon 1 © Copyright 2015 Stimson Center and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace All rights reserved. For more information about Stimson visit . For more information about the Carnegie Endowment visit . Cover photo: shahzebyounas via Flickr A Normal Nuclear Pakistan EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pakistan has worked hard and successfully to build diverse nuclear capabilities. It will retain these capabilities for the foreseeable future as a necessary deterrent against perceived existential threats from India. At this juncture, Pakistan’s military leadership in Rawalpindi can choose to accept success in achieving a “strategic” deterrent against India — a nuclear force posture sucient to prevent limited nuclear exchanges and a major conventional war. Alternatively, it can choose to continue to compete with India in the pursuit of “full spectrum” deterrence, which would entail open-ended nuclear re- quirements against targets both near and far from Pakistan. ese choices would lead Pakistan to two starkly dierent nuclear futures and places in the global nuclear order. Pakistan is now competing successfully with — and in some respects is outcompeting — India. Paki- stan operates four plutonium production reactors; India operates one. Pakistan has the capability to produce perhaps 20 nuclear warheads annually; India appears to be producing about ve warheads an- nually. But given its larger economy and sizable nuclear infrastructure, India is able to outcompete Pa- kistan in ssile material and warhead production if it chooses to do so. Pakistan has prepared for this eventuality by investing in a large nuclear weapons production complex. Whether New Delhi chooses to compete more intensely or not, it is a losing proposition for