2013 10月全球报告.pdf

An overview of global cement sector trends th Insights from the Global Cement Report 10 Edition XXX Technical Congress FICEM-APCAC 2 September, 2013 Lima, Peru Thomas Armstrong International Cement Review Agenda ?? Review of global cement markets in 2012 –?Consumption, production, trade, capacity ?? Industry performance, capacity, prices, emerging majors ?? Global growth scenarios and outlook ?? Focus on key markets trends in 2013 ?? Conclusions Global cement industry trends 3 Global cement demand 1 Global cement demand, 2002-2013E 4,500 12.0% 4,000 10.0% 3,500 3,000 8.0% 2,500 6.0% 2,000 1,500 4.0% 1,000 2.0% 500 0 0.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E Demand Mt % Change Linear % Change ?? Global volumes have doubled over the last decade, from 1.8bnt in 2002 to 3.7bnt in 2012, reflecting a CAGR of 7.4%. ?? Compares to a CAGR of 4.3% in the previous decade 1992-2002 . Global cement industry trends 4 Regional economic growth trends GDP Growth, World Regions, 2002-2017E 20 World 15 Advanced economies 10 European Union e g n Emerging market and a h 5 C developing % economies Latin America and the Caribbean 0 China -5 -10 Global cement industry trends 5 Global cement demand 2 Evolution of cement demand 2002-2013E 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 t M 2,500 n M 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E Mature Markets Emerging Markets China ?? Global cement demand is dominated by China 39% in 2002 vs 58% in 2012 ?? Steady growth in emerging markets ?? Mature markets entered into a period of contraction from 2008 Global cement industry trends 6 Regional consumption 2002 2012 0% 0% 6% 13% 3% 3% Western Europe 4% 4% Central Eastern Europe North America 5% SouthCentral America 8% Africa 47% Indian Sub-Continent 8% 4% Middle East South Asia 61% 5% 5% North Asia Australasia 5% 7% 5% 5% Global cement industry trends 7 Top 15 cement consumers