分形外推插值算法在电力负荷预测中的应用.pdfVIP

30 卷 13 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 30 No.13 2006 年7 月 Power System Technology Jul. 2006 文章编号：1000-3673 （2006 ）13-0049-06 中图分类号：TM715 文献标识码：A 学科代码：4704051 分形外推插值算法在电力负荷预测中的应用 薛万磊，于继来 （哈尔滨工业大学 电气工程系，黑龙江省 哈尔滨市 150001） Application of Fractal Extrapolation Algorithm in Load Forecasting XUE Wan-lei，YU Ji-lai （Department of Electrical Engineering，Harbin Institute of Technology，Harbin 150001，Heilongji ang Province，China ） ABSTRACT: For traditional fractal interpolation it is difficult to 0 引言 extrapolate. To solve this problem the fractal property of inner 许多自然或物理现象存在凹凸而不圆润、破碎 interval is extended outwards by self-similarity and scale invariance of fractal, and on this basis a fractal extrapolation 而不连续、粗糙而不光滑、随机而不平稳的几何形 algorithm is proposed. In this algorithm from a certain initial 体，传统数学描述这些现象时存在困难或经常产生 point the direct search is performed by use of iterated function 错误抽象，分形几何却可以弥补这一不 。它可以 system and attractor of inner interval, and through the process 直接从未经简化和抽象的复杂非线性系统本身去认 that after specified times of iteration the mean square deviation 识其内在的规律性，与传统的线性近似处理方法存 between obtained point set and attractor is ever-reduced the value 在本质区别。分形理论认为，由系统各部分组成的 of initial point on Y-axis is step-by-step adjusted; when the mean [1-3] square deviation become the minimum, the