电力市场中考虑灵活性措施的发电投资决策分析.pdfVIP

第 34 卷 第 11 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 34 No. 11 2010 年 11 月 Power System Technology Nov. 2010 1000-3673 2010 11-0151-05 F 123.9 A 790·625 文章编号： （ ） 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科代码： 电力市场中考虑灵活性措施的发电投资决策分析 曾鸣，田廓，鄢帆，薛松，董军 （华北电力大学能源与电力经济研究咨询中心，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Analysis on Investment Decision of Power Generation Project in Electricity Market Considering Flexible Tactics ZENG Ming, TIAN Kuo, YAN Fan, XUE Song, DONG Jun (Research Advisory Center of Energy and Electricity Economics, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: The market-oriented reform of electric power 摘要：电力市场改革使发电投资面临了众多不确定性和潜 industry makes the investment for power generation project be 在的市场化风险，这对发电投资的灵活性提出了较高的要 faced with uncertainty and a lot of potential market risks, so it 求。考虑电力市场环境下发电投资灵活性的特点，提出了 raises a higher claim for the flexibility of power generation 发电投资决策的灵活性分析框架，并以扩展的净现值作为 investment. Considering the feature that in electricity market 灵活性策略评估指标，应用实物期权理论对投资策略进行 environment the power generation investment is flexible, an 评估。分别对乐观、一般和悲观的市场环境中燃料成本和 analysis framework to analyze the flexibility of investment 电价等不确定性因素进行模拟，分析各投资阶段的项目收 decision of power generation project, and taking the expanded 益波动情况。针对基本投资、扩容投资和放弃投资等 3 种 net present value (NPV) as the evaluation index for flexible 灵活性策略，构建了市场环境下考虑灵活性措施的二叉树 tactics, the investment strategy is evaluated by use of the theory 模型，并对灵活性策略的期权价值和扩展的净现值进行评 of real option. The