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bringing down the great wall global implications of capital
1 Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q4
Bringing down the Great Wall?
Global implications of capital account
liberalisation in China
By John Hooley of the Bank’s International Finance Division.(1)
• Capital account liberalisation in China and internationalisation of the renminbi would have a large
impact on the global financial system. An illustrative thought experiment suggests China’s gross
international investment position could increase from around 5% to 30% of world GDP by 2025.
• The UK financial system is likely to be particularly affected. The Bank is working with the People’s
Bank of China to ensure a successful and stable development of renminbi activity in London.
Overview
China’s financial system is still very closed relative to other Summary chart Potential impact of capital account
economies. But there are increasing signs the authorities are liberalisation on China’s international investment position
in favour of relaxing capital controls and promoting greater Average of external assets and liabilities, excluding reserves,
per cent of nominal world GDP
use of the Chinese currency abroad. Timescales are still 40
uncertain, although full liberalisation could potentially occur ‘Declining home bias’ 35
‘Catch-up growth’
within a decade.
‘Closing the openness gap’
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