气候变化条件下海河流域日降水统计降尺度研究.pdfVIP

第 23卷 　第 6期 自　然 　资 　源 　学 　报 Vol23 No　6 2008年 11月 JOURNAL OF NA TURAL R ESOURCES Nov. , 200　8 Sta tistica l D own sca ling the D a ily Prec ip ita tion for C lim a te Change Scenar ios in Ha ihe R iver Ba sin of Ch ina 1, 2 1 3 CHU J ianting , X IA Jun , XU Chongyu ( 1. Key L aboratory of W ater Cycle R elated L and Su rface Processes, In stitute of Geograp h ic Sciences and N atural R esources R esearch , CA S, B eij ing 10010 1, Ch ina; 2. Graduate Un iversity of Ch inese A cademy of Sciences, B eij ing 100049 , Ch ina; 3. D ep artm ent of Geo sciences, Un iversity of O slo, P O Box 1047 B lindern, No03 16 O slo, Norway) A b stract: Statistical down scaling m ethod s are common ly u sed to deal w ith the sp atial scale m ism atch in a sse ssm ent the imp act of global clim ate change on water re sou rces. In th is article, the p redictand is daily p recip itation from 11 weather station s in H aihe R iver for 1961 - 2000. The p redictors originated from the reanalysis data set of NCEP / NCAR , a s well as the outpu ts of scenario a2 and b2 of H adCM 3. The re su lts showed that: ( 1) p redictors can be selected from the w ide sp ace w ith the Stepw ise M u ltiL ine R egre ssion m ethod ( SMLR ) , and the se p redictors have som e p hysical m ean ing; (2) when the Statistical DownScalingM ethod ( SD SM ) was driven by different GCM s out puts, the annual p recip itation cycles were well down scaled w ith all of the GCM reanalysis data; ( 3) the p er