国际石油价格波动对我国物价水平的影响分析概述.doc

国际石油价格波动对我国物价水平 的影响分析 摘要 本文围绕国际油价与国内物价水平的关系这个核心，描述我国石油供需和贸易现状，立足于我国石油行业的特殊性，并在相关经济学原理的基础上，得出油价从国际到国内再传递到国内主要相关行业的传导机制。石油作为重要战略物资和特殊商品，对国民经济发展具有重大影响。本文对其做出分析，找出影响石油价格对我国物价水平的因素，并提出解决对策及相应的应对措施。 [关键词] 石油价格 物价水平 政策措施 ABSTRACT This article revolves the international oil price and domestic price level relational this core, describes our country petroleum supply and demand and the trade present situation, bases in our country petroleum profession particularity, through makes the detailed statistical data contrast, and in the correlation principle of economics foundation, obtains the oil price from internationally to domestic to transmit again to the domestic main correlation profession conduction mechanism.The petroleum took the important strategic resources and the special commodity, have the significant influence to the national economy development.This article makes the thorough analysis to it, discovers the influence petroleum price to our country price level factor, and proposed the solution countermeasure and corresponding should to the measure, [Key Words] Petroleum price Price level Special operational policy measures 目录 一．国际石油市场现状………………………………………………………………………...(４) （一）三次世界石油危机回顾……………………………………………………………..(４) （二）影响国际油价波动的主要因素……………………………………………………...(５) 1．全球石油增产余力不足………………………………………………………………..(５) 2．石油库存难以有效补充………………………………………………………………..(５) 3．供应中断担忧是市场心理失衡的根源………………………………………………...(６) 二．我国石油市场的现状……………………………………………………………………….(６) （一）我国石油供需及贸易现状…………………………………………………………...(６) 1．石油供需现状…………………………………………………………………………...(６) 2．加入WTO后我国石油市场更深层次的变化………………………………………...(７) 三．国际油价波动对国内物价水平影响的传导机制的理论研究…………………………….(７) （一）我国石油行业的特殊性……………………………………………………………..(８) 1．石油贸易进口方式的单一性…………………………………………………………...(８) 2．成品油国内定价机制的滞后性………………………………………………………...(９) （二）三种代表性物价指数简述…………………………………………………………..(９) 四．油价波动对国内物价水平的影响………………………………………………………….(10) （一）影响油价传导的主要因素……………………………………………………..…….(11) 1．进口石油到岸价，主要由国际市场现货交易价和国际运价构成…………….……..(11) 2．税率……………………………………………………………………………….……..(12) 3．汇率……………………