基于灰色系统理论的电力负荷中长期预测大学生毕业设计论文.docVIP

摘要 电力负荷预测是电力系统的一项基本工作，它决定了发电、输电、配电等方面的合理安排。准确的负荷预测可以保证电网安全稳定运行，并有效地降低发电成本，提高经济效益和社会效益。尤其在电力改革进一步深入、电力市场逐步形成、电力企业自主经营和自负盈亏的今天，电力负荷预测工作已变得越来越重要了。电力系统中长期负荷预测直接影响电力系统的规划、生产和运行，是电力科学研究的重要课题之一。与超短期、短期电力负荷预测相比，中长期负荷预测是指一年以上的负荷预测。由于时间间隔长、季节性负荷变化波动大，涉及社会发展的国民经济多方面因素情况复杂，其电力负荷分布规律性差。因此，其工作难度大，用传统的负荷预测理论建立的负荷预测模型难以满足精度要求。 本文在对比几种预测模型优缺点的基础上，选择灰色预测模型。灰色预测模型具有所需样本少、预测精度高等优点。首先采用灰色预测模型中的GM(1,1)模型对上海市未来五年的负荷进行预测。对搜集到的上海市历年电力消耗量在Matlab中进行处理，得到预测值，然后采用残差、后验差检验模型的科学性和准确度，评价结果是“优”。为了增加可比性和精度，在GM(1,1)模型的基础上，采用残差改进模型，再次对上海市未来五年的负荷进行预测。同样，对该模型预测值进行残差、后验差检验，并将所得数据与真实值、GM(1,1)模型预测值进行对比。发现改进模型预测值比GM(1,1)模型预测值更加接近真实值，从而不仅得到更加精确的未来五年负荷预测值，也论证了改进模型的可靠性。 关键词：电力系统；中长期负荷预测；灰色预测模型；GM(1,1)模型；上海市 ABSTRACT Power load forecasting is a basic work of power system and it determines the reasonable arrangement in aspects of power generation, transmission and distribution. Accurate load forecasting can ensure the safe and stable operation of power grid, effectively reduce power generation cost, and improve the economic benefit and social benefit. Especially in the day of electric power with further reform , gradually formed market , independent operation and self-sustaining enterprise , power load forecasting work has become more and more important. Medium and long-term load forecasting directly affect the planning, production and operation of power system, and is one of the important subject of scientific research. Compared with super short-term and short-term power load forecasting, medium and long-term load forecasting points to be the load forecasting of more than one year. Due to the long interval time, large seasonal changes in load fluctuation, the power load distributes irregularly. Therefore, it is difficult to meet the precise requirement with the traditional theory of load forecasting of load forecasting model . In this paper ,advantages and disadvantages are compared between several kinds of prediction models based on the grey prediction model. Grey forecasting model has advantages of less sam