加卸载响应比理论应用于堆积层滑坡预报.pdfVIP

14 5 Vo.l 14, No. 5 2005 10 JOURNAL OF NATURAL D ISASTERS O ct. , 2005 : 1004-45 4( 2005) 05- 00 9- 05 1 1 2 张文杰 , 陈云敏 , 贺可强 ( 1. , 31002 ; 2. , 266033) : , , , , , , , : ; ; ; ; : P642. 22 : A App lication of loading/ un loading response ratio th eory to prediction of accum u lative land slide 1 1 2 ZHANG W en-jie , CHEN Yun-m in , HE Ke-qiang ( 1. Institute of Geotecnical Engineering, Zhej iang University, H angzhou 31002 , China; 2. D epartm ent of Civil Eng ineering, Q ingdao University of Techno logy, Q ingdao 266033, China) Abs tract: The load ing /unloading response ratio( LURR) theory is a new method applied to studying precursor and prediction of instab ility for nonlinear system s. There are a few examples of th is theory app lied in landslide prediction and it isprmi arily used for earthquake forecast at present. Th is paper gives a further study on th is theory applied in seeking for precursor and landslide forecast. Rainfall is the most frequently changing factor in all exterior factors that influence slope stab ility. And it is usually the factor that triggers landslide. As the key role played by rainfall on accumu lative landslide is concerned, a prediction for the know n X intan landslide was carried out by means of LURR method, where the changing w ater effectw as selected as load ing /unloadingm easures. The resu lt show s that LURR method can be used as a new means to forecast landslide, and it has an advantage over conventiona