城市客运交通需求预测模型 毕业论文.docVIP

摘 要 交通与经济的发展是紧密相连，相互促进的。然而，经济的发展也引起了许多交通问题的出现，成为人们面临的非常棘手的问题。如：城市交通拥堵问题日益严重城市居民出行造成巨大的经济损失城市交通规划，依据，模型乃至于影响整个城市未来经济发展。如何进行交通需求预测，是城市共同面临的题。 内容上，本文首先分析了论文的研究背景，介绍了论文研究的目的意义及研究思路，对城市客运交通需求预测模型的国内外的发展现状、相关理论以及预测模型存在的不足进行了相关的概述，在有充足理论基础的前提下，以唐山市为例，对唐山市的公共交通现状进行了分析，统计了唐山市近21年的客运量数据，并对其进行了分析以及未来几年变化趋势的预测。再分别运用移动平均法、指数平滑法、弹性系数法、及回归分析预测四种方法进行了计算。对比分析各种模型的预测情况，如预测的准确性、适用条件、优点、缺点等。然后选择其中最适合唐山市客运量预测的模型，对其未来几年的客运量进行预测。最后针对预测的重要性，结合呼和浩特市的交通现状，提出了几点改善呼和浩特市客运环境的方法。 关键词:唐山市；城市客运；交通需求预测模型 Abstract The development of transportation and economy are closely linked, promote each other. However, economic development has caused many traffic problems, has become a very difficult problem people face. Such as: city traffic congestion, air pollution, noise pollution and other serious problems. City residents travel are restricted to a great extent, causing huge economic losses, need reasonable traffic planning can fundamentally solve the problem. However, the premise of city traffic planning is a city traffic demand must have practical prediction, prediction of high quality is an important basis for transportation planning, the accuracy of model prediction determines whether we can reasonable traffic planning, as well as the impact on peoples life and the whole city economy development in the future. How to accurately, reasonable traffic demand forecast, is the most common problems of Chinese city. Now our country is in the key period of time to improve the city to improve the road network, reasonable use of land resources, and strive to achieve efficient utilization of resources, in line with Chinas actual situation of the traffic demand forecast model research task imminent. In content, this paper first analyzes the research background of this thesis, introduces the meaning and purpose of the research study, the overview of the city passenger traffic demands forecasting problems, development status of domestic and foreign theories and prediction model, based on sufficient theoretical bas