地下工程岩爆灾害预测的属性综合评价模型.pdfVIP

科技导报2014，32（8） 地下工程岩爆灾害预测的属性综合地下工程岩爆灾害预测的属性综合 评价模型评价模型 王李管，裴安磊，彭平安 中南大学资源与安全工程学院；中南大学数字矿山研究中心；长沙迪迈数码科技股份有限公司，长沙410083 摘要摘要 针对地下工程岩爆灾害预测各种方法的局限性以及预报准确率低的现状，基于属性数学理论与方法，选取围岩最大切向 应力与岩石单轴抗压强度之比、脆性系数和弹性能量指数作为岩爆灾害预测的主要评价指标，建立了岩爆灾害预测的属性综合 评价模型，对岩爆的发生与否及其烈度进行了预测。应用属性数学理论，构造了各评价指标的属性测度函数，并利用相似数定义 相似权的方法确定各指标的权重以计算综合属性测度，最后应用置信度准则进行属性识别，给出评价结果。以10组典型地下工 程为例，对该模型进行了验证，结果表明，该模型评价结果与实际情况有较好的一致性，验证了属性综合评价在岩爆灾害预测中 的可行性和适用性，为地下工程岩爆灾害的预测提供了一种新途径。 关键词关键词 地质灾害；岩爆预测；属性数学；属性综合评价；相似权 中图分类号中图分类号 TU 45 文献标志码文献标志码 A doidoi 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2014.08.002 AttributeSyntheticEvaluationModelforRockburstDisaster PredictioninUndergroundEngineering WANGLiguan,PEIAnlei,PENGPingan SchoolofResourcesandSafetyEngineering,CentralSouthUniversity;ResearchCenterofDigitalMine,Central SouthUniversity;ChangshaDigitalMineCo.,Ltd,Changsha 410083,China AbstractAbstract According to the present situation of the limitation and low accuracy of rockburst disaster prediction in underground engineering,basedontheattributemathematicstheory,theratioofmaximumtangentialstresstouniaxialcompressivestrengthof rock,brittlenesscoefficientandelasticenergyindexarechosenasthediscriminantindexestobuildanattributesyntheticevaluation modelforpredictingtherockburstprobabilityandintensity.Theattributemeasurementfunctionsofeachindexareconstructedbased on the attribute mathematics theory, while the synthetic attributive measurement is calculated by the similar weight. Finally, the probability and intensity of rockburst samples are recognized by the confidence criterion. Taking 10 groups of underground engineering projects at home and abroad for example, the model is validated. Results show that the evaluation by this attribute syntheticmodelhasagoodconsistencywiththeactualsituation,whichvalidatesthefeasibilityandeffectivenessoftheproposed modelforrockburstprediction.Themethodologypresentedinthepa