不同风速模型与可靠性指标对风电可信容量评估的影响.pdfVIP

37 卷 10 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 37 No. 10 20 13 年10 月 Power System Technology Oct. 2013 文章编号：1000-3673 （2013 ）10-2896-08 中图分类号：TM 715 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4054 不同风速模型和可靠性指标对 风电可信容量评估的影响 翀，王秀丽，谢绍宇，吴雄 （西安交通大学电气工程学院，陕西省 西安市 710049 ） Impacts of Different Wind Speed Models and Reliability Indices on Capacity Credit Evaluation of Wind Power QU Chong, WANG Xiuli, XIE Shaoyu, WU Xiong (School of Electrical Engineering, Xi ’an Jiaotong University, Xi ’an 710049, Shaanxi Province, China) ABSTRACT: At present the research on wind power capacity 0 引言 credit is pressed for a foundation in the selection of wind speed models and reliability indices. For this reason, we compare the 在大规模间歇式电源并网的背景下，由于风电 effects of using observed wind speeds, average observed wind 的波动性、随机性和不可控性，实际运行中常常仅 speeds, probability sampling, and time series analysis to assess 考虑风电的电量价值而忽略其容量价值。随着风电 the reliability of wind integrated generating systems, and the 装机容量在电源结构中所占比例的提高，这种处理 reasons causing the differences are analyzed. Reliability indices such as the probability, frequency, duration, and the amount of 方式会低估风电场对电力系统充裕度的贡献，导致 [1-2] lost load under the at-risk, marginal, and healthy states in the 过多规划常规机组的保守倾向， 成资源浪费 。 well-being framework are applied to the assessment of wind 风电的可信容量可以评估风电场能替代多少常规 power capacity credit, respectively. Using the solving method 机组计入电力平衡，或者说，风电场在多大程度上 for capacity credit based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation,