第十三章总供给与通胀和失业之间的短期取舍研讨.ppt

总供给与通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡取舍 * * A good example to illustrate the difference between adaptive and rational expectations. Suppose the Fed announces a shift in priorities, from maintaining low inflation to maintaining low unemployment w/o regard to inflation; this shift will start affecting policy next week. If expectations are adaptive, then expected inflation will not change, because it is based on past inflation. The Fed’s announcement pertains to the future, and has no impact on past inflation. If expectations are rational, then expected inflation will increase right away, as people factor this announcement into their forecasts. * Here’s an interesting and important implication: Central banks that are politically independent are typically more credible than those that are “puppets” to elected officials. Hence, in countries with central banks that are NOT politically independent, it is usually far costlier to reduce inflation. A very worthwhile reform, therefore, would be for governments to give their central banks independence. * The natural rate hypothesis allows us to study the long run separately from the short run. * * * * * * slide * 滞后性对自然率假说的挑战 滞后性: 历史对自然失业率的长期持续影响。 负冲击将提高自然失业率 u n , 经济不可能完全恢复: 周期性失业工人的技能在失业期间退化，当衰退结束时也难以找到工作 周期性失业的工人可能失去他们对工资决定过程的影响；内部人 (就业工人) 只为自己的利益考虑，要求涨工资，于是周期性失业的工人可能在衰退结束时变成结构性失业的工人，自然失业率增加。 slide * 本章总结 1. 短期中总供给的三个模型: 粘性工资模型 不完全信息模型 粘性价格模型 三种模型均显示当价格升到预期价格水平之上时，产出升到自然产出水平之上。 slide * 本章总结 2. 菲利普斯曲线 从短期总供给曲线 SRAS curve中导出 表明通胀依赖于 预期通胀 周期性失业 供给冲击 政策制定者面临通货膨胀与失业率的短期取舍关系。 slide * 本章总结 3. 人们形成通胀预期的方式有： 适应性预期 基于近期观察到的通胀率 意味着惯性 理性预期 基于所有可得的信息 意味着可能无痛苦反通胀 slide * 本章总结 4. 自然失业率假说和惯性 自然失业率假说 表明总需求的变动只能在短期中影响产出和就业。 惯性 表明总需求变动能对产出和就业有长期影响。衰退会通过提高自然失业率而给经济留下持久性伤害。 slide * * * * * * I’ve included Figure 13-1 on p. 350 of the text as a “hidden slide” in case you wish to “unhide” it for inclusion into in your presentation. This figure uses graphs to derive the aggregate supply curve under the assumption of sticky wages. As you can