旅游英语-期末(全).pptxVIP

Study on the Prediction of Tourist Flows based on the Baidu Index: A Case Study of the Forbidden City;Introduction (Yang Shuting); Introduction;;Statement of problem;Statement of problem;; Literature Review;;The forefront study of methods for prediction of visitors:;The study of Long Mao Xing found that Regional tourism baidu users attention was a positive correlation with the actual tourist passenger flow. [11] Davidson, compared the imformation flow and the reality tourist flow for Taiwan as distination, has found that website information flow has a guide potential for the travel behavior of tourists. [12];Reference; Baidu keyword and the selection of date ;;01;;; ;Baidu Index;Baidu Index Actual tourist flows; Model establishment and analysis;;1) ARMA: Autoregressive moving average model (自回归移动平均模型) 2) ADLM: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (自回归分布滞后模型);1) Coefficient of determination 2) AIC criterion : AIC= -2L/n+ 2k/n 3) SC criterion : SC= -2L/n- klnn/n;According to the Model judgement index(r2,AIC,SC), we ensure our model is ARMA (3,1):;Using ARMA(3,1) model , we can get the predicted data and real data in December, 2015.;Considering the lag of Baidu index and variables. we tried and test several times, and got the finally result:; Conclusion;Research Conclusions ;Research Conclusions ;1. The trues tourist flow of Forbidden City is actually relate to the Baidu keywords.;2. “Forbidden city” and The trues tourist flow of Forbidden City have Granger causality relationship.;3. Insert Baidu index to the model makes it more precise.;Significance;;