120723(Gold)LowsInTheMaking(黄金)正在形成低点中.docVIP

Gold Lows In The Making 黃金 正在形成低點中 Monday July 23, 2012 14:32 by Mary Anne Pamela Aden, April 27, 2012 Courtesy of The markets have become demanding or should we say, desperate . In spite of the stimulus by four central banks, and the Eurozone bailing out their banks, the markets want more. More interesting, the gold price has held above its December lows. It’s holding firm, in spite of it all and especially considering the Summer months are seasonally slow months for gold. It’s also not breaking down while the dollar strengthens. This in itself is a bullish sign. It seems to be telling us that more stimulus is coming. SUMMER: Likely bottom The June months tend to historically see the most lows for gold. The next popular low month is August. So again, we’ll be watching the $1536 lows carefully during these lazy days of Summer. On the upside, if gold breaks above $1650 and stays there, the worst will be behind us. Then $1700, $1800 and $1900 will be the next stepping stones in the renewed rise. Record high territory would confirm the making of a strong leg upward. HOW HIGH? How high is anyone’s guess. It all depends on the explosive stage in the bull market. That phase is still to come and Chart 1 provides a good example of this. As you can see, gold has been moving within a mega upchannel since 1970. The gold rise since 2001 still has a ways to go before reaching the top side of this mega uptrend. Note on the top chart that gold moved into the upper side of the mega channel when it burst into record territory in September 2009. This was just six months after QE first started in March 2009. When gold reached the $1900 record level last September, the leading indicator below rose to the normal high area and it’s been declining since then, now approaching the uptrend and zero line. This is the meat of the matter… the bottom line. The indicator is telling us that even though gold has risen in a clear consistent bull market for 11 years now, it has yet to re