lecture 1_graduate 2009.ppt

两点说明 1）本门课程为考试课，期末考试占60%，课堂表现为30%； 2）上课实行考勤制度，占10%，旷课1/3时则本门课程重修。 参考书目 参考教材： ①曼昆.《宏观经济学》第五版，中国人民大学出版社，2007； ②多恩布什，费希尔等.《宏观经济学》第八版； ③范里安.《全球视角的宏观经济学》第二版。 ④《现代宏观经济学指南》，布赖恩·斯诺登，霍华得·文等，商务印书馆。 ⑤罗伯特﹒巴罗.《宏观经济学：现代观点》，格致出版社、三联出版社，2008。 ⑥高鸿业等.《研究生用宏观经济学》，中国人民大学出版社，2008。 宏观经济学的两大主题 The Main Questions and Policy Goals 1. How can we increase the long-run growth rate? ----Why do growth rates change over time? ----Why are incomes so different across countries at a point in time? 2. How should we stabilize around that long-run trend? ----Postwar recessions in US mostly short and shallow ----Not true in 1930s and nowadays US, or in other countries today ----Has US policy been good, and something to imitate? ----Or have we just been lucky? 宏观经济学的两大主题 The Birth of Short-Run Macro Modern study of economic fluctuations starts with the Great Depression At its worst, 25 percent unemployment, GDP 30 percent below its 1929 level The Birth of Short-Run Macro Nothing that bad in the US since, but crises in developing and middle-income countries almost as severe Urgent need: A framework to make sense of these facts, and recommend action. No such framework existed The General Theory Most famous such work: Keynes’s General Theory The General Theory Despite name, oriented more towards the practical and less towards theoretical elegance Keynes argued for use of policy to speed up adjustment: “But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in empestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.” (A Tract on Monetary Reform, 1924) #可将现代宏观经济学产生与发展的历史分为如下阶段: 经济学的任务 Economic Models Why models? ? Simplified representations of reality play a crucial role in economics. Economists use models to simplify reality in order to improve our understanding of the world. A General Note on Models Good models usually extremely simple d