2016年电大 -系统工程年会论文(修改)城市开发演进管理的决策支持方法.docVIP

城市开发演进管理的决策支持方法 （1．北京大岳咨询有限责任公司，北京 100032；2.淮南山南新区城市基础设施投资建设有限公司，淮南 232001） 摘要：开发时序直接影响到城市开发的效果，传统做法上，对开发时序的考虑多停留在概念和定性层面。本文采用开放复杂巨系统工程的方法，采用定性和定量结合、理论与实践结合、政府与市场结合以及专家与模型结合的方式，探讨了城市开发这一开放复杂巨系统演进的管理问题。根据对数据和模型的探讨，结合其他城市开发建设的经验，提出了城市开发决策模型，有力地解决了城市开发的时序评价和决策问题，并且在淮南市山南新区的开发工作中得到应用。 关键词：投融资规划；决策支持；城市开发；开放复杂巨系统 A Study of Decision Support Method for Management on New-town Development Progress Wei LI1 , Zhongyou SU2, Min CHEN 1 （1．Beijing Dayue Consulting Co., Ltd., Beijing 100032, P.R.China；2.Huainan new-town Infrastructure Investment and constructiong Co., Lid.） Abstract：Strategic development scheduling is of great significant to the success of new-town development. In the conventional practice, however, the strategic development scheduling is merely taken into account at the conceptual level. From the view of both government and market, backing on expertise support and modern measurement templet, combining theory with practice and through an integrated qualitative and quantitative method, the major focus of this paper is to investigate and explore an enabling managerial approach for new-town development progress to arrive at efficient and effective implementation based on a huge, opened and complicated system. Further, in basis of the measurement and investigation, taking account of the experience and lessons from a number of different cities/towns, a recommended decision–making template, which is currently applied in the new-town development project in Huainan of Anhui province, is posted in this paper for directing correct evaluation as well as timely and quality decision making on the strategic development scheduling. Key words: new-town development; decision support; 1 引 言 城市是开放的复杂巨系统[1],城市开发管理问题本身是城市演进管理问题的一部分。城市开发的管理目标是有序推进投资和建设，落实城市规划，实现城市的可持续发展。我国现行城市规划体系包括城市总体规划、城市的分区规划、城市控制性详细规划、各个地块的修建性详细规划、具体项目的施工图设计等，城市规划侧重于控制最终城市建设的成果和目标，缺少对于落实规划的过程的有效控制。针对国内新城开发建设过程规划失控、缺少统筹等现实问题，李伟等[2]提出，城市规划和城市建设之间缺少一个资金统筹的环节，建议在规划和建设之间增加资金统筹运用的规划，并将其定义为投融资规划。 通过近两年的城市开发建设的决策咨询