ID406-住宅空置空置率及统计口径(世界华人不动产学会年会).docVIP

住宅空置、空置率及统计口径 蔡穗声1 广东省房地产行业协会 广东广州510600 摘要：以往我国住宅“空置”的含义是“未售出或未租出”，反映的是增量商品住宅市场销售状况，涵盖对象是历年“已竣工的可供销售或出租的商品住宅建筑面积”。境外“空置”的含义是“闲置”，反映的是存量住宅的使用状况，涵盖对象是全社会可供使用的住宅。 笔者试定义“空置住宅”：报告期末社会存量可供使用的套型住宅中无人居住的住宅即“空置住宅”。以“套”为计量单位。处于装修状态的住宅属于无人居住。 住宅“空置率”是住宅空置量占社会可供使用住宅总量的比例，以住宅空置量除以社会可供使用住宅总量再乘以100%得出。不存在学术界公认的或权威国际机构发布的“空置率国际警戒线”。 “自然空置率”是合理空置率，是供求关系处于平衡点的量度。对于不同的城市及其经济社会发展的不同阶段，其“自然空置率”是不同的，需要做实证研究得出。实际空置率与“自然空置率”之差，是调节供求关系的指引。 现行房地产统计口径及其方法是计划经济产物，处处与市场经济现实碰壁。做好市场管理的基础性工作，首要的是改革现行房地产统计，提高市场透明度。 关键词：空置 空置率 自然空置率 统计改革 Housing Vacancy, Vacancy Rate and Statistical Caliber Cai Suisheng Guangdong Real Estate Association Guangzhou, Guangdong 510600 Abstract: In the past, in china, housing vacancy means not sold or leased out, which reflects the sales market condition of the incremental commercial housing, covering the floor area of the commercial housing which is completed and available for sale or rental in the past years. Overseas vacancy means idle, which reflects the use condition of the stock housing, covering all the housing available for use in the society. In this paper, the author tries to define housing vacancy as follows: at the end of the report period, the stock housing which is unoccupied and available for use in the society, and set is the unit. The housing in decoration is also unoccupied. Housing vacancy rate is the proportion of vacant housing accounted for the total housing available to use in the society. The amount of vacant housing divided by the total and then multiplied by 100% is the vacancy rate .There is no international warning line of vacancy rate which is recognized academic or authority issued by international institutions. Natural vacancy rate is a reasonable vacancy rate, which measures the supply and demand in balance. For different cities and different stages of economic and social development, its natural vacancy rate is different and needs empirical research to know. The difference between actual vacancy rate and natural v