深圳市一期和二期梅毒时空分布分析 Spatial and temporal patterns of.docVIP

深圳市一期和二期梅毒时空分布分析 Spatial and temporal patterns of primary syphilis and secondary syphilis in Shenzhen,China 胡宇峰 孙振球 洪福昌 蓝丽娜 潘鹏 莫衍石 蔡于茂 文立章 冯铁建 摘要 方法：利用深圳市2005－2009年一期和二期梅毒监测数据（N＝11303），以病例中现住址和诊断日期作为地理和时间变量。采用SaTScan软件实现各年的空间扫描分析，时空扫描分析。 结果：单纯时空扫描发现，2005－2009年深圳市主要聚集在宝安区和南山交界的南山，南头，新安，西乡，和靠近香港的东门，蛇口，福田以及娱乐业比较发达的龙华，华富, 黄贝,翠竹等街道，这些聚集区域在前4年变化不大，但是2009年出现了9个新的集群。其中各年最可能的集群（most likely cluster）Abstract Methods: Primary syphilis and secondary syphilis cases among residents in Shenzhen between 2005 and 2009(n = 11,303) were geocoded at street office level (n = 55) based on residence at the time of diagnosis. The spatial and space-time scan statistics were then used to identify clusters of street office by using SaTScan software. Results: In the purely spatial analyses, the clusters were the junction of the Baoan District and Nanshan District( such as Xinan, Xixiang, Nanshan and Nantou street office) and in the region near Hong Kong(such as Dongmen, Shekou, and Futian street office), as well as in the other streets where entertainment industry is relatively developed (such as Longhua, Huafu ,Huangbei and Cuizu street office ).they clusters have little change in the first four years, but it appeared new nine clusters in 2009. The most likely cluster for each year are located in Longhua (2005, P ≤ 0.001, RR = 3.34), Bamboo (2006, P ≤ 0.001, RR = 9.59), Huafu(2007,2008 years , P ≤ 0.001, RR were 4.18 and 4.75), Cuizu (2009, P ≤ 0.001, RR = 8.02). In space-time scan analysis, we found 16 significant clusters, which are similar to the purely spatial analyses. But there are also regional differences, the most likely cluster is Guiyuan street office in 2006. Conclusion: The spatial and space-time scan statistics are effective ways of describing circular disease clusters.We have known the spatial and temporal patterns of primary syphilis and secondary syphilis in Shenzhen by spatial and space-time scan statistics of syphilis surveillance data in recent years. The changes of