CH02_withFigures.pptVIP

Chapter 2 DECISION MAKING, SYSTEMS, MODELING, AND SUPPORT Learning Objectives Understand the conceptual foundations of decision making Understand Simon’s four phases of decision making: intelligence, design, choice, and implementation Recognize the concepts of rationality and bounded rationality, and how they relate to decision making Learning Objectives Differentiate between the concepts of making a choice and establishing a principle of choice Learn how DSS support for decision making can be provided in practice Understand the systems approach Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Characteristics of decision making Groupthink Decision makers are interested in evaluating what-if scenarios Experimentation with the real system may result in failure Experimentation with the real system is possible only for one set of conditions at a time and can be disastrous Changes in the decision making environment may occur continuously, leading to invalidating assumptions about the situation Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Characteristics of decision making Changes in the decision making environment may affect decision quality by imposing time pressure on the decision maker Collecting information and analyzing a problem takes time and can be expensive. It is difficult to determine when to stop and make a decision There may not be sufficient information to make an intelligent decision Information overload Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Decision making The action of selecting among alternatives Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Phases of the decision process Intelligence Design Choice Problem solving A process in which one starts from an initial state and proceeds to search through a problem space to identify a desired goal. It includes the 4th phase of the decision process Implementation Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Decision making disciplines Behavioral Scientific Successful decision Effectivenes