老麦在美国本地的咨询--如何保证加州电力充足学案.ppt

Lightening Strikes Twice: California Faces a Real Risk of A Second Power Crisis THE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CRISIS, BUT 5 KEY STEPS WILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKET ENERGY AGENCY FORECASTS OF FUTURE DEMAND ARE OPTIMISTIC COMPARED TO ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS THE POTENTIAL FOR A “HIGH DEMAND CASE” IS AS HIGH AS A 1-IN-5 EVENT, RATHER THAN JUST A 1-IN-10 EVENT THE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CRISIS, BUT 5 KEY STEPS WILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKET MARKET-BASED LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SHOULD BE ADOPTED TO FACILITATE GENERATION CONSTRUCTION THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SOURCES OF CAPACITY THAT COULD BE BROUGHT ON LINE BY 2006 IF THE STATE ACTS NOW TIME OF USE PRICING IN CALIFORNIA IS A DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM THAT COULD PAY FOR ITSELF MULTIPLE AGENCIES HAVE JURISDICTION OVER TRANSMISSION PLANS, SLOWING SITING AND CONSTRUCTION OTHER STATES WITH RESERVE TARGETS AND CAPACITY MARKETS HAVE SEEN STABLE CAPACITY AND LOW VOLATILITY RETAIL CHOICE IS SOUGHT AFTER MOST BY LARGE CONSUMERS, BUT BENEFITS ALL CUSTOMER CLASSES IMPLEMENTING A CORE/NON-CORE MARKET STRUCTURE IN CALIFORNIA WILL REQUIRE CAREFUL PLANNING Unit of measure * Footnote Source: Source Working Draft - Last Modified 7/29/2004 6:23:07 PM Printed 7/29/2004 5:22:18 PM CONFIDENTIAL Document Date This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey Company. This material was used by McKinsey Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion. Working Draft Last Modified 7/29/2004 6:23:07 PM Pacific Standard Time Printed 7/29/2004 5:22:18 PM Pacific Standard Time Lake Tahoe Energy Conference July 30, 2004 CONFIDENTIAL This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior writt