人民币升值对我国出口产品结构的影响.docVIP

摘要 人民币升值是我国当前经济发展面临的热点议题之一。汇率作为一个国家参与国际经济活动时重要的综合性价格指标，在国际贸易中执行着价格转化功能，因此人民币升值的效应集中体现在对外贸易领域。而随着经济的发展，贸易的结构问题也愈发引起人们的重视。 本文主要研究人民币实际有效汇率和出口商品结构之间的相关关系。首先归纳总结出1994年至2010年的人民币实际有效汇率，表明在这一期间，人民币实际有效汇率总体上呈现出较大的上升。然后基于SITC标准对我国的出口商品分类数据进行分类总结，得出我国1994年至2010年的初级产品，工业制成品，资本密集型产品和劳动密集型产品分别在出口中所占的份额。之后，用相关性公式对人民币实际有效汇率和这四类出口商品的份额进行相关性分析。 这一分析得出的结果是这四类出口商品均与人民币实际有效汇率有着较强的相关，其中初级产品和劳动密集型产品的份额与人民币实际有效汇率为负相关，工业制成品与资本密集型产品的份额与人民币实际有效汇率为正相关，这说明人民币实际有效汇率与我国的出口商品结构之间有着较强的相关关系。通过贸易理论上的分析也进一步佐证了这一相关关系。 最后，本文对政府和企业如何更加积极地面对和顺应这一客观变化提出了建议。对政府来说，要稳步实施汇率改革，促进产业升级并且加大对教育和科研的投入。对企业来说，要实施品牌战略，走自主创新之路，主动调整发展方向并且加强资源整合的力度，从而提高我国出口产品的国际竞争力。 关键词：实际有效汇率 出口商品结构 相关性分析ABSTRACT The appreciation of RMB is currently one of the hot topics related with development of China’s economy. The exchange rate, which implements the function of price change in trade, is an important and comprehensive price index when a country participate international economic affairs, so the effect of RMB appreciation focus on the field of international trade. As development of economy, the structure of trade is attract more attention than ever. The thesis mainly studies the relation between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and export commodities structure. Firstly, the dates of RMB real effective exchange rate show a clearly appreciation of RMB from 1994 to 2010. Then, the date of export commodities is summarized, which based on the standard of SITC, and the shares of primary products, manufactured products, capital-intensive products and labor-intensive products, respectively, in china’s export are obtained. Afterward, correlation equation is used to analysis the relation between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and these four kinds of export products. The results of analysis show these four kinds of export products is strongly related with the real effective exchange rate of RMB, to be more specifically, the primary products and labor-intensive products have negative correlation wit