(甘肃省相对水资源承载力区域差异分析--修改稿1.docVIP

甘肃省相对水资源承载力区域差异分析* 白 洁 （天水师范学院，甘肃 天水 741001） 摘要：分别选取全国和甘肃省为参照区域，分析了甘肃省及其各地区2003~2007年相对水资源人口承载力、相对水资源经济承载力及其变化过程。进而得出，甘肃省水资源相对较匮乏、人口密度较小，经济发展严重不足。水资源总量上，相对全国而言，甘肃省水资源承载的人口严重超载，GDP相对满载；但水资源利用量上，人口与GDP承载力双重富余；相对全省而言，各地区水资源利用量承载的人口和GDP均相当富余的城市为酒泉、张掖和武威，而其处于相当超载的城市则分别为天水和兰州。 关键词：相对水资源人口承载力；相对水资源经济承载力；甘肃省 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 文章编号： Regional Differences of the Relative Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Gansu Province BAI Jie (Tianshui Normal University, Tianshui 741001, China) Abstract: The relative population carrying capacity of water resources, relative economic carrying capacity of water resources of Gansu province and its each region have been calculated from 2003 to 2007, compared with whole country and the province respectively. It is concluded that Gansu province has gone into the stage of relatively shortage of water resources, low population density and quite backward economic development from 2003. As far as the water resources amount is concerned, compared with the whole country, the theoretical carrying capacity of population in Gansu province is much more higher than its current level while the GDP is in full load condition. However, taking into account water use efficiency, the population and GDP that Gansu province can carry is far higher than its current level. For the relative carrying capacity of the population and GDP compared with Gansu province, Jiuquan is the most surplus region, followed by Zhangye and Wuwei, and it is in very overloaded condition are Tianshui and Lanzhou respectively. Key words: relative population carrying capacity of water resources; relative economic carrying capacity of water resources; Gansu province 甘肃省地处黄土高原、青藏高原和蒙古高原交汇地带，气候干燥，降水稀少，水资源匮乏。分属黄河、长江和内陆河3大流域，包括9大水系，年径流量大于1亿m3的河流78条。多年平均降水总量1258.31亿m3，折合径流深276.9 mm，多年平均水资源总量289.44亿m3，其中地表水资源量282.139亿m3，平均年产水模数6.37万m3/km2。随着甘肃省水资源开发利用程度不断提高，用水量逐年增长，水资源短缺、生态环境恶化等问题已成为经济发展和社会进步的重要制约因素。通过甘肃省相对水资源人口与经济承载力理论值与其实际量对比，为其合理调控人口和经济规模以及确定未来发展策略提供参考依据。 1 研究方法 1921年承载力（Carry